According to the WSJ's March survey, the median expectation of respondents was that the federal funds rate will end 2017 at 3.0%, the same as the median expectation in the January survey before the sell-off in the Treasury market began.
Capital Economics notes in a report on Friday:
- We anticipate that Treasury yields will rise further, although we doubt they will surge as we suspect that "term premiums" will remain quite low.
- Indeed, our expectation is that the 10-year yield will rise more slowly, and to a lower level, than the WSJ median forecast of 3.5% by the end of next year.
