USDCHF Pulls Back on Sticky Inflation + Soft Retail Data – Bulls Reload at 0.8050, Eye 0.82 Breakout Next

USDCHF pared some of its gains after mixed economic data. Currently trading at 0.80780, it reached an intraday high of 0.80778. 

US economic data on November 25, 2025 painted a classic “Goldilocks-but-getting-stickier” picture: September producer prices surprised to the upside with headline PPI jumping 0.3% m/m and y/y rising to 2.7%, driven by energy and signaling the disinflation process is stalling, while core PPI held steady at ~2.7-2.8%. Hours later, retail sales cooled to +0.4% m/m (from 0.6%) and core sales to +0.4% (from 0.7%), showing consumers are still spending but shifting into lower gear amid higher-for-longer rates and lingering inflation. Taken together, the releases reinforce a resilient yet decelerating economy—no imminent recession, no runaway boom—keeping the Fed in wait-and-see mode, trimming aggressive rate-cut bets, and leaving markets with a soft-landing scenario that’s a little warmer and slower than bulls hoped heading into 2026.

Technical Analysis Points to Further Bullishness

The pair is trading above the 55-EMA,the 200-EMA, and 365 EMA on the 4-hour chart, indicating a bullish trend. The immediate resistance is at  0.81050; any break above targets  0.8150/0.82180.

Support Levels and Potential Declines

On the downside, near-term support is around 0.8050; any violation below will drag the pair to 0.8020/0.8000/0.7965/ 0.7920/0.7865/0.7800.

Indicators (4-hour chart)

CCI (50) - Bullish

Directional Movement Index -  Neutral

Trading Strategy Recommendation

It is good to buy on dips around 0.8050 with SL around 0.8050 for a TP of 0.8150/0.8218.