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The USD/CNY is expected to trade with a 6.95 resistance at the moment, partly due to local stock markets that are struggling with mounting risks in share-pledged loans.
However, when the risks from share-backed loans are mitigated and eliminated properly, the dollar/yuan will likely be allowed to rally through the 7.00 mark particularly if the dollar strengthens across the board and if the US-China tensions escalate further.
The yuan will continue facing depreciation pressure amid China’s economic slowdown and the US-China tensions. In addition, we note the 3M USD Libor has resumed its upward trend since mid-September.
Macro data have casted a shadow on China’s growth outlook. The nation’s outstanding total social financing (TSF) including state government special bonds increased at a slower pace in September. The broad measure of credit and liquidity in the economy grew 10.6 percent only to CNY197.3 trillion last month.
"We also stay nimble on swings in risk sentiment and keep a close eye on the 10Y UST yield that has been driving the global risk sentiment cycle," the report added.
