U.S. retail sales likely to rise in October, to find greater support in coming months

Retail sales in the United States are expected to have risen during the month of October and are likely to find greater support in the months ahead. The October Commerce Department advance retail sales report will be released Tuesday, 15 November at 08:30EST (13:30GMT).

Retail sales should find greater support in the coming months despite dampened conditions across the economy. Accordingly, we expect headline total retail sales will increase +0.5 percent m/m in October, versus the +0.6 m/m reading seen in September. Also, we expect a +0.4 percent m/m ex-autos reading, versus the +0.5 percent m/m reading seen in September.

The onset of the financial crisis and extended string of employment weakness have really placed a stranglehold on purchasing decisions in recent quarters, weighing on consumption since 2H08. However, following the notable improvement seen in recent months, we see improving consumption prospects over the course of 2016 as consumers gradually loosen the grip on their wallets.

Nevertheless, the consumers remain in a difficult situation as credit access remains constrained alongside dampened home prices (despite modest improvement) and a difficult financial environment.

Moreover, improved demand for retail items should prevent declines of any significant fashion from being posted in 4Q16. Beyond October, we see improved prospects stemming from further stabilization in labor markets, bolstered by support coming from wage growth.

The dollar index (DXY) was 0.22 percent lower at 9.89 at the time of closing on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), while at 6:00GMT the FxWirePro's Hourly Dollar Strength Index remained highly bullish at 129.39 (higher than the benchmark of 100 for bullish trend).

Meanwhile at 6:40GMT, U.S.’s benchmark stock index, S&P 500 Futures was trading 0.19 percent higher at 2,164.50, while Nasdaq Futures were 0.07 percent higher at 4,697.50.