U.S. retail sales expected to rise for first time in three months

A price-induced increase in gasoline service station revenues, combined with an anticipated acceleration in control purchases, probably propelled retail and food services sales 0.5% higher in February, reversing almost one third of the 1.6% decline recorded over the prior two months.
 
Motor fuel costs rose by 3.1% after seasonal adjustment during the reference period, following a truly stunning 35.5% dive from last July through January. 

After incorporating an anticipated contraction in product supplied, gasoline sales likely climbed by 2.4%, or by $865 million, adding two ticks to headline purchases last month. 

Further stripping out movements in building materials (0.1%) and motor vehicle (-1.1%) sales, retail control - the portion of the Census Bureau's advance report that the Bureau of Economic Analysis utilizes to construct nominal goods spending estimates - probably expanded by 0.8% - the largest increase since last March.
 
Societe Generale notes in a report on Monday:

• The stepped-up outlays on clothing, food, furniture and general merchandise are expected to power that gain.
• Our projection would place control purchases over the first two months of 2015 3.1% annualized above their October-December average, after a 5.6% fourth-quarter advance.