FxWirePro: Daily Commodity Tracker - 21st March, 2022 
Before we get too carried away, however, it's worth stressing that the record warm temperatures in the fourth quarter, and December in particular, probably paid a role. It's notable that construction employment increased by a massive 45,000 last month and more than 120,000 in the fourth quarter. Nevertheless, even discounting that strength, the numbers look good. For all the talk of a factory recession, the manufacturing sector added 8,000 jobs in December. Gains in services employment were also very robust, with the possible exception of the retail sector, which added only 4,000 jobs last month, albeit after some hefty gains in October and November.
The unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.0% in December, but only because a massive 485,000 increase in the household survey measure of employment was almost matched by a 466,000 jump in the size of the active labour force. As a result, the participation rate ticked up to 62.6%, from 62.5%.
The only disappointment is that average hourly earnings were unchanged in December, although thanks to some favourable base effects that was still enough to lift the annual growth rate to 2.5%, from 2.3%. A meaningful pick-up in wage growth is still the missing piece of the puzzle in this recovery, but the survey evidence suggests it will arrive soon.
"We believe these figures obviously support a March rate hike from the Fed, but as the FOMC statement last month stressed, it is developments in inflation rather than the labour market that will determine the pace of future rate hikes. With oil prices close to $30 a barrel now, this latest labour market improvement doesn't necessarily guarantee a March rate hike, although we do think that is the most likely outcome "says Capital Economics .
