US initial jobless claims tick higher at end of August

Initial jobless claims ticked higher, to 282k, in the week ending August 29, modestly above our forecast (275k) and consensus expectations (275k). Along with prior-week initial claims that were revised down just 1k, to 270k, this led the four-week moving average of initial claims to tick up to 276k (previous: 272k). The Labor Department reported no special factors in this morning's report, but did note that the beginning of the school year can lead to some seasonal volatility in initial claims.

 Continuing claims for the week ending August 22 fell to 2.257mn from 2.266mn the week prior. The four-week moving average of continuing claims was steady at 2.264mn (previous: 2.265mn), and the insured unemployment rate was unchanged at 1.7%. Looking through the volatility in this week's initial claims, labor market separations continue to indicate a healthy labor market.

"We continue to look for nonfarm payroll gains of 225k and a one-tenth decline in the unemployment rate, to 5.2%, in tomorrow's August employment report", says Barclays.