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US inflation expectation as measured by 5 year 5 year (5y5y) forward inflation expectation rate is struggling to push above the highest level seen before March Fed commentary of around 2.16% and today's softer PPI release would make it even harder for inflationary bulls.
Rally in oil prices has also came to a halt, though prices have not reversed course yet resuming last year's downward move. However that possibility remains large given large US stockpile and still near record production level.
Without oil rallying, demand is not strong enough across US to push inflation higher at faster pace. Moreover higher US dollar has resulted in lower export demand. Yesterday's no growth in retail sales number posed considerable doubt over domestic demand.
Unless, inflation expectation breaks above it is unlikely to generate any massive rally in longer end yields, fundamentally speaking and any speculative ride remains vulnerable.
Dollar index is trading at 93.38, down further -0.25% today as four month low gets broken. Further downside remains open at least around 90.5 area.
