US headline inflation to remain close to zero

Alongside a plethora of Fed speakers, markets will have plenty of other US releases to chew on this week. The data flow includes February industrial production (Weds), business inventories (Tues), housing data (Thurs) and business and consumer sentiment surveys. 

A reasonable degree of confidence that inflation is set to rise towards its 2% target was identified by the Committee as one of the factors that would be necessary for a decision to raise the policy rate. 

Lloyds Bank anticipates a modest uptick in the US March headline rate to 0.1% y/y from 0.0%. As in previous months, the key focus will be on the core rate, which excludes food and energy. This is expected to remain at 1.7% for the second consecutive month, soothing concerns of an incipient deflationary spiral.