US consumers likely returned to shops in March

After dismal private consumption in January and February, partly due to the harsh weather, a rebound is likely in March: retail sales likely to be seen up 0.9% m/m (consensus: 1.0%), boosted by solid car sales, after -0.6% in February. 

Standard Chartered notes:

• We see core sales ex autos and gas up 0.4% from -0.2% in February. This should fuel hopes that GDP will rebound in Q2 after hitting a speed bump in Q1. 
  
  
• We see the gas-pump savings starting to boost US consumption gradually, many consumers having opted to pay down debt rather than spend on other items so far. 
  
  
• We see growth of 1.0% q/q SAAR in Q1, accelerating to 3.0% in Q2.