US consumer confidence still at strong level

University of Michigan's consumer confidence index fell to a four-month low of 91.4 in March, from 95.4. The index still remains well above its long-term average of 85.1. 

The decline in the headline index was driven by falls in both the expectations and current conditions indices. The expectations index fell back to 83.7 this month, from 88.0. The current conditions index fell to 103.0, from 106.9.

Capital Economics notes in a report on Friday:

• Any Fed officials still worried that the sharp decline in energy prices would trigger a more widespread debt-deflation spiral should be comforted by the rebound in one-year ahead inflation expectations to a six-month high of 3.0% in March, from 2.8% in Feb and a low of 2.5% in Jan. 
  
  
• As we've been saying all along, these "expectations" are principally driven by current changes in prices. Now that gasoline prices have rebounded, near-term inflation expectations have, unsurprisingly, rebounded too.