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German headline inflation rate falls below zero in July, likely to return to positive territory in August
U.S. University of Michigan’s preliminary consumer confidence index remains unchanged in November
U.S. consumer confidence remains largely unchanged in November. The preliminary estimate of the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index came in at 95.7, which is largely unchanged from October’s 95.5, and in line with expectations. Nevertheless, there were some changes to the underlying details.
The current conditions index dropped, but was countered by a rise in the expectations index. The press release showed that there were voluntary references to tariffs by 25 percent of all respondents, while concerns over a potential impeachment of the President were negligible. In all, consumer confidence continues to be on a strong footing, supportive of consumption spending in the months ahead.
Delving into details, consumers’ assessment of current conditions dropped a bit in the month, with the index moving lower to 110.9. This was led by a small downgrade to the assessment on household finances, with more respondents non viewing finances as “worse” or ”same” relative to a year ago, rather than “better”.
Looking at expectations, the index rose to 85.9 from 84.2, helped by a rebound in expectations of business conditions and the employment situation. Expectations of household finances adjusted for inflation moved slightly lower, owing to a rise in the percentage of respondents who believe inflation will outstrip income growth in the next one to two years. However, around 56 percent of respondents expect higher incomes in the next year.
Inflation expectations came in little changed in November. The one-year ahead inflation expectation was 2.5 percent – unchanged from October, while the long-term inflation expectation index moved higher by one-tenth, to 2.4 percent.