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US forces are set to withdraw from their remaining bases in Iraq by Wednesday, ending a military presence that has lasted more than two decades and raising concerns over Iran’s growing influence and a possible Islamic State resurgence.
The withdrawal was agreed in 2024 under former President Joe Biden and is being implemented by President Donald Trump’s administration. Iran and Tehran-backed armed groups have portrayed the departure as a major victory after years of seeking to remove American forces from Iraq.
Iraqi security analyst Jasim al-Bahadli said the US exit removes a longstanding counterweight to Iranian influence. He warned that Iran-aligned militias could use the withdrawal to strengthen their role in Iraq’s security and political decision-making.
Abu Mojtaba al-Yasiri, a commander in the Iran-backed Islamic Resistance in Iraq, called the pullout a “historic victory,” saying September 30 would mark the end of what his group considers an American occupation.
However, some Iraqi officials and community leaders fear the country is not prepared to manage the resulting security challenges. Sunni tribal leader Abdulrahman al-Zobaie said Iraqis support full sovereignty but worry that the coalition’s departure could create a dangerous security vacuum.
US troops first entered Iraq in 2003 to overthrow Saddam Hussein. American forces withdrew in 2011 but returned in 2014 as part of the international campaign against Islamic State, helping Iraqi forces defeat the group’s territorial caliphate.
Concerns are now mounting that ISIS sleeper cells could exploit reduced US intelligence, drone and logistical support. Kurdish commander Sirwan Barzani said Islamic State activity had increased in recent weeks as the withdrawal approached.
Iraqi security forces also reportedly disrupted a suspected ISIS cell preparing suicide attacks timed around the US departure. Colonel Khalid al-Bayati, a senior security official in Kirkuk, said the militant group wants to demonstrate that it remains capable of carrying out deadly attacks.
The US withdrawal therefore represents a major geopolitical shift for Iraq, potentially strengthening Iran-backed factions while testing Baghdad’s ability to contain Islamic State without direct American military support.
