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According to ADP's most recent weekly NER Pulse issued today, America's private payrolls have gone from losing jobs to little expansion. Employers added an average of 4,750 jobs per week during the four weeks ending 22 November 2025, a dramatic reversal from the preceding period when weekly losses exceeded 10,000, particularly among small firms. Though November's full-month ADP report still indicated a 32,000-job drop, the new high-frequency data indicate that the labor market bottomed out and is now stable.
The change helps to calm worries of an immediate recession that arose following the underwhelming monthly publication. ADP researchers emphasize that labor demand remains cooler than previously in the cycle but is in line with a gradual weakening rather than a collapse. Formerly the hardest hit, small firms now seem to have leveled hiring mood and are not causing mass layoffs.
Markets are interpreting the update as a respite rally for risk assets, reducing wagers on bold emergency Fed cuts while leaving cautious easing very much available. With wage growth still slowing, the general picture calls for a "soft landing" scenario: a cooling but tenacious U.S. labor market heading into the December Fed meeting.
