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US ISM manufacturing index edged up 0.2 points to 48.2 in January, missing expectations which called for a pick up to 48.4. The details of the report were however somewhat mixed. Despite missing on the headline print, which remained below 50 for the fourth consecutive month, the index rose modestly for the first time since April 2015, suggesting that we may be nearing a trough.
Inventory spread expanded from 5.3 to 8.0, its highest level since the end of 2014. The import sub-index, which is among the best leading indicators of future activity also picked up. The most disappointing detail of the report was the exports subcomponent (-4.0 pts to 47.0), which slipped back into negative territory after recording one month of expansion.
"The continued slump in energy related investment continues to weigh on domestic manufacturers as the weakness works through a complex supply chain. Still, manufacturers that are more exposed to domestic consumption and/or residential investment should remain well supported by relatively healthy domestic demand." said TD Economics in a report.
