UK household consumption likely supported Q4 GDP

Notes from Standard Chartered Research:

• The second release of the UK's Q4 GDP (27 February) will likely match the first, at 0.5% q/q (2.7% y/y). The breakdown by expenditure will be available this time. 
• We expect household consumption to have been the main growth driver, as retail sales (ex-car fuel) were up 2.1% q/q in Q4, the highest quarterly increase in over 10 years. 
• Household consumption has risen in each quarter since Q4-2011. 
• Fixed investment and government consumption likely contributed positively but only mildly to growth. 
• Net trade also likely made a small positive contribution, as the trade deficit shrank in Q4 versus Q3. 
• In terms of the sector breakdown, the recovery remains very much driven by services. 
• Industrial production has slowed down recently, especially the energy sector. Manufacturing is growing steadily.