UK Jobs Data: Will Wage Growth Trigger Rate Hike Fears?

The UK labour market report published today, April 15, 2025, is seen to show a mixed picture of the labour market. Although employment growth was robust in January 2025, February has been forecast with a slowing down or even reduction by some 20,000 jobs, which reflects a possible weakening of the labor market. Unemployment is also forecast to remain stable at 4.4%, above normal.

Wage inflation is also an area of special concern, and January saw a 5.9% year-on-year increase, excluding bonuses. Such a wage growth rate has extremely important consequences for inflation trends, and the report will be closely observed for any evidence of acceleration or easing. Surveys in recent weeks have suggested slowing hiring and rising candidate availability, implying employers are exercising caution amidst economic uncertainty.

Overall, the jobs report will likely report slowing employment growth, a flat unemployment rate, and sustained wage growth, providing a balanced picture of the UK's economic health. The figures are going to significantly impact the British pound (GBP) and market perceptions of the Bank of England's monetary policy reaction, with strong numbers possibly supporting GBP and tighter policy expectations and softer numbers possibly weakening it.