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Long end of the curve especially sees rising UK gilt yields as investors price in more hawkish Bank of England and more inflation pressure. With 20-year and 30-year rates reaching their highest levels since 1998 and the 30-year yield hitting 5.822 percent, the move reflects expectations of a higher-for-longer rate curve instead of a fast easing cycle.
Though the increase does not ensure an impending BoE rate rise, it helps to raise the apparent likelihood of a stricter policy response function. Though the central bank is still projected to maintain rates at the next conference, market pricing now points to at least one hike likely later this year.
The rise first helps the pound for markets by means of increased interest expectations, even if it also points up possible budgetary responsibility issues and lower demand for long-duration bonds. While the long end responds more to inflation, economic risks, and term premium, front-end gilts are most sensitive to BoE hike chances; any chaotic volatility might ultimately impact GBP and UK assets.
