UK GDP growth likely above trend: Lloyds Bank

Quotes from Lloyds Bank:

- Following firm outturns for recent survey indicators of UK activity, notably February's PMIs, industrial production (Wed) and construction output (Fri) for January will give the first steer from official data on UK growth in Q1. We expect a modest 0.2% monthly gain in production and an above-consensus 1.5% expansion in construction activity. 

- Such outturns - consistent with growth remaining at or above 0.6% per quarter - would point to ongoing absorption of the econony's spare capacity that, in time, would warrant a tightening in UK monetary policy. Of secondary interest will be the RICS housing survey for February (Thu), expected to corroborate the trough in housing market activity already seen in mortgage approvals data for January. 

- An improving activity outlook - supported by falling mortgage rates and a more favourable stamp duty taxation regime - points to a fading drag on GDP from housing market turnover. Finally, trade data for January (Thu) will be scrutinised for signs of UK exports benefiting from a pick-up in Eurozone activity.