Turkey inflation to rebound in Q4

In Turkey, CBT kept all its policy rates unchanged in July MPC meeting, in line with our expectation and the overwhelming consensus view. The MPC statement was also a verbatim repeat of the June statement, though the CBT is marginally dovish on short-term inflation. 

The CBT maintained its cautious monetary policy stance and reiterated that "future monetary policy decisions will be conditional on the improvements in the inflation outlook". 

"Although the inflation profile looks favourable in Q3, this is likely to be short-lived, as inflation is expected to rebound in Q4", says Barclays.