Tone of MPC minutes shifting further towards rate increase

BoE MPC members seem to be increasingly laying the groundwork for a rate increase. 

Martin Weale hinted last week that he would vote for a rate increase in August. Recently, Mark Carney in his 16 July speech said that "the decision as to when to start such a process of adjustment will likely come into sharper relief around the turn of this year."

But for the July meeting it is known that the decision was to leave rates unchanged. The main question is about the vote. 

According to Societe Generale, "If even Weale is talking about August as the likely date for him to resume voting for an increase then most likely the July vote was again 9-0. If that is the case then again the minutes should include the passage "For two members, the immediate policy decision remained finely balanced between voting to hold or raise Bank Rate." However be on alert for this to be changed to "some" rather than "two"."

David Miles said in his speech: "The time to start normalisation is soon; that is not something to shrink from" His second and final term as an MPC member ends with the August meeting. 

Given the above remarks, he is expected to vote for a rate increase before he leaves the committee which means either this month or August. So the probable vote was again 9-0 but there is a minor risk of one or more having broken ranks to vote for a rate increase, said Societe Generale in a report on Wednesday.