Today’s CPI report is the key event for SEK this week

Today's CPI report is the key event for SEK this week. Markets are expecting a tick higher in CPIF to 1.0% y/y (from 0.9% y/y) while headline CPI stays at 0.2%y/y. 

That would reinforce the notion that inflation is bottoming - the faster that happens, the more comfortable the Riksbank may be to allow some SEK appreciation. 

For now the Riksbank is likely to remain very sensitive to any move in EUR/SEK below 9.20. 

Also out today are the Riksbank minutes from the April 28 decision which will provide more colour on the sensitivity to both inflation and the exchange rate.