The US January 2026 CPI Release: Cooling Inflation in Sight?

The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the January 2026 US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data at 8:30 AM ET today, February 13, 2026, following a postponement from the initially planned February 11 date brought about by a partial government closure. No official statistics are yet accessible as of pre-release; markets and investors are awaiting numbers on bls.gov. The study arrives amid continuing debate on Federal Reserve policy; recent lower inflation trends support possible rate increases in 2026.

According to December 2025's actual figures, headline CPI increased 0.3% month-over-month and 2.7% year-over-year, following expectations mainly driven by continuous shelter expense increases of 0.4% m/m (and 3.2% y/y). Core CPI (not including food and energy) increased a smaller 0.2% m/m—below the predicted 0.3%—while remaining steady at 2.6% y/y, reaching its lowest level since 2021 and falling under the expected 2.7%. This more mild reading reaffirmed opinions of slow disinflation despite sticky elements like housing.

While January 2026 consensus projections show headline CPI remaining at 0.3% m/m but moderating to roughly 2.5% y/y (from 2.7%), suggesting somewhat more cooling. Still above the Fed's 2% target, core CPI is expected to recover somewhat to 0.3% m/m and hold in the 2.5–2.6% y/y range. Conversely, confirmation of cooling trends might support "soft landing" optimism; a hotter-than-expected print could strengthen the USD, pressure equities and Treasuries, and perhaps delay rate cuts, especially against calls for looser policy.