Tesla Cybertruck: A Strategy of Scarcity to Boost Demand in 2024-2025

Tesla will almost certainly sell every Cybertruck it produces between 2024 and 2025. However, that may not be a large number of automobiles.

Elon Musk's Tesla Cybertruck May Steal Leaf from Ferrari's Playbook

CEO Elon Musk may be following in the footsteps of Ferrari by limiting supply, at least initially, in order to create scarcity value and keep prices high, as per Business Insider. This is also what happens with huge new iPhone launches, when Apple gradually ramps up manufacturing and enthusiasts are left battling for the latest technology.

The Cybertruck is the most contentious new vehicle to hit the market in at least a decade. People either despise or adore the angular design. Then there are Musk's controversial comments, which may have turned off some potential purchasers, as well as industrial scaling issues.

Cybertruck Expectations from Wall Street

According to Wall Street, Tesla will sell approximately 48,500 Cybertrucks in 2024. This is the average of the most current projections from Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, UBS, Bernstein, and Wedbush.

"Consensus delivery forecasts need to come down in part because we expect initial production to be challenging," the UBS analyst Joseph Spak wrote in a recent note to investors. "Cybertrucks available in 2024 may be more 'statement vehicles.'"

According to Goldman Sachs, Tesla will produce 150,000 Cybertrucks by 2025. Wedbush forecasts 230,000 sales that year.

Morgan Stanley predicts that just 78,000 Cybertrucks will be sold in 2025, for a total of 108,000 vehicles sold over the next two years. In comparison, more than one million reservations were made with $100 deposits. Even if 80% of these customers cancel their reservations, 200,000 orders are still made.

The Ferrari's Strategy

If only 108,000 Cybertrucks are deployed in 2024 and 2025, demand may greatly outnumber supply in this early stage. "Will Tesla take a page out of Ferrari's playbook of limited series production? The company may decide to purposely limit series production to maintain scarcity while focusing company resources on more profitable products,” Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas wrote in a recent research note.

Jones mentioned historical instances such as Aston Martin manufacturing 645 Lagondas and Ferrari limiting Daytona SP3 production to 599 units.

Collectors can discover limited edition bottles of "Teslaquila" and fake flamethrowers from the Boring Company for sale on eBay for thousands of dollars, according to Jonas.

Analysts predict that demand for cybertrucks will fall more than expected. When it comes to public firms, Wall Street can be excessively optimistic. There are also questions about the trucks' escalating prices and how insurers would cover this odd steel beast of a vehicle.

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