Tepid global demand amidst a rising dollar is clearly weighing on overall US exports: TD Economics

Quotes from TD Economics:

- Overall, the trade report came in largely as expected on the headline, with cheaper oil and rising production leading to an improvement in the balance. The sharp widening in the trade deficit in the previous release - to a 2014 high of -45.6bn in December - will be remembered as an anomaly.

- While the weakness in real imports would normally point towards relatively subdued domestic demand, a significant chunk can be explained by greater domestic energy production substituting for imports. Nonetheless, the external backdrop of tepid global demand amidst a rising dollar is clearly weighing on overall exports.

- In terms of GDP implications, the fourth quarter will remain largely unchanged owing to limited revisions. For the first quarter of 2015, net trade begins on the back foot, which was not unexpected, but which places greater onus on domestic demand remaining robust - something we expect given continued improvement on the home front, as telegraphed in today's payrolls report.