Tepid core inflation to support the Fed’s wait-and-see stance

February CPI inflation data will be released Tuesday (08:30 ET). Standard Chartered research notes:

• In line with the consensus, we think headline prices were up 0.2% m/m, from -0.7% prior, driven by higher gasoline prices. 
• We think core CPI inflation was up 0.1% m/m (1.6% y/y), after 0.2% in January. 
• This should mean that core PCE inflation - the Fed's reference - was also up 0.1% m/m, a still-tepid rate supporting the Fed's wait-and-see stance. 
• The March preliminary Markit PMI index (09:45 ET) is seen as less important than the ISM index, but still provides valuable information on business sentiment, in our view. 
• Echoing recent softer regional surveys (e.g., Empire and Philly Fed indices), we expect a slight erosion from February's 55.1. 
• February new home sales (10:00 ET) were likely hit by the poor weather in line with recent housing data.