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Crude oil prices showed a gap up yesterday due to escalating tensions between Russia and Ukraine, hitting a low of $66.78 and currently trading around $68.71.
Geopolitical Tensions
The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has reached a critical point, especially after recent nuclear policy updates. On November 19, 2024, President Putin signed a new nuclear doctrine allowing for a nuclear response if Russia faces significant conventional attacks backed by nuclear powers. This follows the U.S. authorization for Ukraine to use long-range missiles against Russian targets, heightening tensions. Kremlin officials have warned that NATO support for Ukraine could be viewed as direct involvement in the conflict, leading to serious concerns about potential nuclear escalation.
Impact of Production Outage
On November 18, 2024, production at the Johan Sverdrup oil field was briefly halted due to a power outage caused by smoke in an electricity converter station. This oil field is one of the largest in Europe, having recently reached a record output of 756,000 barrels per day. After the outage, Equinor announced that partial production has resumed, contributing to a spike in oil prices, with Brent crude futures rising by about 3%. The field is expected to maintain high output until early 2025 before it begins to decline.
Market Analysis
The US dollar index and US treasury yields remain bullish, which is generally negative for commodities. Major resistance for crude oil is at $69.55; breaching this level could push prices up to $70.59, $71.45, or $72.60. A significant trend reversal would only occur if prices rise above $73. Near-term support is around $69.70, and if this level is broken, targets could drop to $68.70, $68.45, $67, or $66. According to the 4-hour chart indicators, the ADX is bearish, and the CCI is neutral at 50.
Trading Strategy
It may be wise to consider selling on rallies between $71.50 and $71.55, with a stop loss set at around $72.50 and a take-profit target of $67.
