Strong rise of French National Front, leading to a crushing defeat for the Socialist Party

Polls suggest that the far-right National Front would win more than 30% of the votes at the first round of the departmental elections, just followed by the conservative party (UMP). 

The Socialist party would win less than 20% of the votes, down from 25% in 2011. As the voting system favours alliances, the National Front is unlikely to win many departments at the second round on 29 March since neither the conservatives nor the socialists are going to back any far-right candidate.

These 2,000 local elections serve to elect the heads of the 102 French "Departments". The conservative parties currently hold 41 "Departments". The leftist parties head 59 departments (of which 50 by the Socialist party) whereas two departments are held by independent parties.

The National Front does not head any department. Polls suggest that the leftist parties could lose 25-30 departments, which would be a crushing defeat.

Societe Generale says...

• This election is unlikely to have any substantial impact on the French parliament. Yet, with a weaker political support, the French government will find it increasingly difficult to accelerate reforms and to meet the Commission fiscal consolidation requirements. 
  
  
• Over the last 30 years, these local elections were generally not predictive of the Presidential elections (to be held in April and May 2017). 
  
  
• However, the loss of support for the Socialist parties is accompanied by surveys showing that President Hollande is one of the most unpopular Presidents in recent history.