Quotes from RBC Capital Markets
- Our forecast for non-farm payrolls (NFPs) is 230,000, not far from the consensus of 235,000, a slight moderation after 257,000 in January.
- The ADP employment report posted a 212,000 gain, although it should be taken with a grain of salt given its loose correlation with NFPs. The ISM non-manufacturing employment sub-index rose to 56.4 in February, but after dropping to 51.6 in January.
- The eight-week average for jobless claims has remained anchored below 300,000. The harsh weather (including during the survey week) may have affected employment marginally. Job cuts in the energy sector pose some downside risks, in our view.
- We predict the unemployment rate dropped 0.1ppt to 5.6%, in line with the consensus. We see average hourly earnings growing 0.2% m/m (2.1% y/y) after 0.5% in January, in line with the trend in recent months.
