Singapore Feb NODX: A bigger drag from petrochemicals

Non-oil domestic exports fell 9.6% y/y in February, much weaker than our (-1.5%) and consensus (-0.9%) expectations. 
On a seasonally-adjusted basis shipments plunged 9.4% m/m to reach the lowest level in five years.

The print was consistent with weakness seen in north Asia in the pre-Lunar New Year period, and reflects a combination of factors: weak China demand, lower prices for petrochemicals, distortions from the timing of the Lunar New Year, and payback from the surge in shipments we saw in January.

Stripping out the latter two factors and averaging Jan-Feb NODX, the weakness in the print looks much less dramatic at -2.7% y/y, and of this petrochemicals - which has been weighed by lower oil prices - were a 3.0pp drag. 

While the weakness in exports was likely exaggerated by these factors, there is still no sign of a trend improvement in exports either, with electronics in particular remaining subdued. 

Barclays notes on Tuesday as follows:

We do not believe this will be enough to prompt the MAS to ease monetary policy further in April, given that the output gap is likely to remain positive.