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Released today, November 20, the delayed September 2025 Nonfarm Payrolls report blasted the gloom: 119,000 jobs were added versus a consensus of just 50,000 and a depressing 22,000 in August. Leading the charge were health care (+43K), restaurants and bars (+37K), and social services, more than compensating for significant losses in transportation and warehousing (-25K) and ongoing federal government cutbacks. The headline beat indicates that the U.S. labor market maintained substantially greater vigor over Q3 than anyone had expected.
Still, the specifics remain inconsistent. With 7.6 million Americans now jobless—the most in a year—the unemployment rate went up to 4.4% from 4.3%. While the annual rate held at 3.8%, wage growth slowed to +0.2% month-over-month (below the predicted 0.3%). Labor-force involvement and the employment-to-population ratio either flattened or declined, therefore confirming the recovery is erratic and still weak.
For markets and the Fed, this spectacular print dashes cold water on strong December rate-cut expectations and kills off any near-future recession scare. A resilient-but-cooling jobs photograph keeps the Fed in “one-and-done” or “skip” territory instead of emergency mode. Dollar and yields are soaring; the soft-landing group just received a tremendous tailwind.
