A -4% decline likely in Russia’s 2015 GDP

Russia's recession deepened to -4.6% y/y in Q2 from -2.2% in Q1. 

Russian real sector data to be released next week will provide further indications on the growth path. A bottoming out of the recession appears to be forming and further deterioration is not expected in July, confirming a flattening pattern. 

"At the same time, there are indications that growth has reach an inflection point so that the rate of decline will improve in Q3 and Q4 and GDP start to grow in 2016. We retain our forecasts of a -4% decline in 2015 and a -0.7% fall in 2016", says Barclays.

Real wages and retail sales are flattening out at around -10% y/y. In addition, there are tentative signs of improvements in investment and production.