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Russia’s economy ministry has revised its 2025 Brent crude oil forecast down by nearly 17%, now projecting an average price of $68 per barrel, compared to the $81.7 previously estimated in September. The update, reported by Interfax, reflects growing concerns over weakening global demand and increased market volatility.
For Russia’s main export blend, Urals, the ministry expects a 2025 average of $56 per barrel—significantly below the $69.7 per barrel price used to base the national budget. Despite the sharp drop, a ministry spokesperson called the outlook “a fairly conservative estimate.”
This downgrade comes as Urals crude recently dropped to its lowest price since 2023, hitting around $53 per barrel in early April and staying under $60 last week. The Russian central bank also warned earlier this month that oil prices could remain subdued for several years due to sluggish demand.
Oil and gas revenues are vital to Russia’s budget, contributing roughly one-third of total government income. Nevertheless, the ministry dismissed fears of a global recession, even amid escalating trade tensions led by U.S. President Donald Trump. “The world is still wider than the United States,” said a ministry official, suggesting that trade flows will adapt.
Russia’s GDP growth forecast for 2025 remains steady at 2.5%, but inflation expectations have been revised upward to 7.6% from a previous estimate of 4.5%. The ministry also anticipates a stronger rouble, forecasting an average exchange rate of 94.3 roubles per U.S. dollar, an improvement over the earlier 96.5 forecast.
This revised outlook underscores the uncertain path ahead for global energy markets and highlights the growing pressures facing Russia’s oil-dependent economy.
