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Dollar is taking heavy hit today across board as yield are now rising beyond treasuries and at much faster rate.
- German 10 year yield has reached close to its Thursday high of 0.75%. Now trading at 0.728%, up nearly 13 basis points today. UK 10 year is not far off too, cleared 2% rising nearly 8 basis points. Further rise seem very much likely. In contrast US 10 year rose about 7 basis points trading at 2.34%.
European yield has been one sided trade and now with rising yields, pension funds, and Insurance groups are diversifying their asset base with chance to invest in Europe at higher yield.
Moves can turn out to be even more volatile and sharp as two extreme one side trades might experience further rapid unwinding.
- Since the European crisis of 2011/12 buying German bund has remained extreme one sided trade. Appeal of the trade seems to be fading with recovery in sight and probabilities of reflation rises.
- From mid-2014, Dollar has remained one sided buy trade as bets over US rate hike by Federal Reserve. Federal Reserve still may hike rates, however that would be of lesser impact if global yields keep rising faster than US.
