Rebound in US retail sales confirms weather distortion to preceding two months data

The 0.9% m/m rebound in retail sales in March would seem to confirm that the coldest winter on record in the Northeast explains much of the weakness in the preceding two months. Control group retail sales rebounded by a more modest 0.3% m/m, following declines of 0.2% m/m in each of the preceding three months. 

This isn't a fantastic result, but it isn't entirely surprising either. March was still unseasonably cold in the Northeast and Midwest, just not quite as far below seasonal norms as February was. Accordingly, the weather related distortion still hasn't been fully unwound, leaving scope for further sizeable gains in control group sales in April and May.

"Real consumption growth was probably slightly below 2% annualised, with GDP growth close to 1.5%. But second-quarter consumption growth should be a lot stronger." - said Capital Economics in a report on Tuesday