Pound Crumbles as Dismal UK Retail Sales Ignite Yen Rally: GBPJPY Slides to 204.86 with Bears Firmly in Control

GBPJPY trades weakly as yen recovers. Intraday trend is bearish as long as the resistance at 206.25 holds. It hit a low of 205.13 at the time of writing and is currently trading around 205.15.

UK retail sales plunged 1.1% month-on-month in October 2025, far worse than the flat reading expected by markets and the steepest drop in over two years, contrasting sharply with September’s revised 0.7% gain. The broad-based decline, led by sharp falls in supermarket food and clothing sales, reflects cautious consumers deliberately holding back spending ahead of Black Friday promotions and the government’s looming budget announcement, signalling a clear slowdown in household demand as the crucial festive shopping season begins.

Oscillators and moving averages to forecast the trend of GBPJPY

CMP- 205.15

EMA (4-hour chart)

55-EMA- 205.38

200-EMA- 204.14

365-EMA- 203.48. The pair trades below the short (55- EMA) and above the long-term moving average(365 EMA and 200 EMA).

Major Support- 204.80. Any breach below will drag the pair down 204.30/203.70/203/202.50/202/201.70/201.25/200.

Major resistance - 206.25.  Any break above confirms minor bullishness, a jump to 206.85/207.05/208/209.20 is possible.

Indicator (4-hour chart)

 CCI (50)-  Neutral

Average directional movement Index-  Bearish. All indicators confirm a bullish trend.

It is good to sell on rallies around 205.28-30 with SL around 206.25 for a TP of 203.40/.