Polish industrial production growth likely contracted in November

The Polish industrial production data is set to release this week. According to an Erste Group Research report, the industrial production output is likely to have contracted in November.

The PMI holding well below the margin of 50 and local manufacturing indicator going deeper into negative territory imply a further deceleration in industrial activity. Furthermore, the negative calendar effect I November will likely put additional pressure on the performance of industry in Poland.

“We expect industrial production to contract and arrive at -3.7 percent y/y in November (consensus at 0.3 percent y/y). If such a negative scenario materializes, we could see GDP growth dropping visibly below the 3.5 percent margin in 4Q19. At the moment, we continue to see FY19 GDP growth at 4.2 percent”, added Erste Group Research.