Poland's Q1 GDP flash estimate likely at 3.5% yoy

Poland's Central Statistical Office (CSO) is expected to confirm the flash estimate (released 14 May) for Q1 GDP growth at 3.5% yoy. This figure is in line with the market consensus. It will also release the breakdown of Q1 GDP growth. 

Analysts agree that the growth in economic activity is being driven by domestic factors: private consumption and investment. It is quite likely that there will be a softer, negative contribution by net exports to GDP growth. 

Societe Generale sees a solid contribution from domestic demand, private consumption increased by around 3.1% yoy in Q1. It expects a solid investment growth of 5.7% yoy despite the high statistical base in Q1 14.