Poland holding policy rate at 1.5%

The National Bank of Poland (NBP) kept its policy rate on hold at 1.5%, as expected. The NBP appears quite comfortable with keeping its policy rate unchanged during 2015. This is significant because during January and February 2016 the terms of 8 out of 10 MPC members end (without the possibility of reappointment). So their successors will decide what and when the next move will be made. Furthermore, Governor Belka's term ends in June (with the possibility of reappointment). Elections take place on 25 October and thus a new parliament and the new president will make all the appointments. The opposition, PiS, is currently ahead in all the polls, increasing policy uncertainty.

The structure of the statement is still cast in a tone that appears to assume the next rate change will be a hike. With CPI in deflation, the NBP asserts that inflation will slowly increase towards the target supported by stable growth, euro area recovery, and domestic labour markets.

However, it noted that there are currently no inflationary pressures in the economy and expressed some doubts: "increasing risk of stronger economic slowdown in emerging economies and the declining commodity prices have raised the uncertainty about the pace of inflation returning to the target." The statement also notes the "deterioration in financial market sentiment." On growth, the NBP stresses stabilization, but concedes that Q2 15 growth was slightly weaker than the previous quarter .

"Overall the NBP appears to be more uncertain and thus slightly more dovish, implying that rate hikes are more remote. However, with the exception of one or two MPC members, this group will not be making the decisions next year. Once a new MPC is in place, no policy change can be ruled out",says Barclays.