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Market seems to solely focusing on one point - Federal Reserve (FED) to be patient or not to be.
Evolution and implication -
- FED communicated to market in 2014 that policy would remain accommodative for considerable time. In 2015, FED removed the considerable time and introduced that it could remain patient before raising rates.
- Chair Yellen explained patient means rates on hold for at least two meetings.
- Removing the "patient" word would mean FED is to hike at any meeting.
Since market remains fixated over the word so if the word stays dollar might take a hit however any major move will remain on hold until further clues arrive over the press conference.
Should the FED remove "Patient"?
Arguments in favor -
- Unemployment rate has reached close to FED's longer term target level.
- FED's High credibility is at stake which is vital for success of monetary policy.
- US economy is growing strong and might be able to handle rate hike.
Arguments against -
- Inflation has weakened in recent time. PCE deflator has not reached FED's target since 2012.
- Stronger dollar over rate hike bets are hurting the economy.
Whatever the outcome, is sure to be a volatile event.
