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Oil price faces downside risk after Iran's re-entry shakes market

Oil prices changed the direction again on Tuesday, returning closer to fresh multi-year lows, after last week's decision to lift sanctions on Iran added to the woes of weak demand and worries over the worsening global oversupply. After all, the oil market is still significantly oversupplied due to high production by OPEC, Russia and the US. Recent US oil production shows signs of falling sharply should ensure that the oversupply disappears in the second half of the year.

A leading representative of the state Iranian oil company NIOC had also commented that Iran should plan to increase supply in a way that would not have any excessive impact on market prices. 

Futures for WTI crude fell 0.58% to trade at $29.25 per barrel, hitting an intraday low of $28.36, while Brent contracts declined 0.62% on Monday afternoon, changing hands at $28.76 per barrel. If futures contracts with the same maturity date (March) are compared, however, WTI is $1 per barrel more expensive than Brent.

After taking all the circumstance in to consideration, Commerz bank lowered oil price forecast for Brent this quarter to $35 per barrel from $50. 

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