November NFP Miss: Only 64K Jobs Added as Unemployment Hits 4.6%

US​‍​‌‍​‍‌​‍​‌‍​‍‌ November jobs report showed a weakening labor market. Nonfarm payrolls increased by only 64,000, a figure that is significantly below the 90–100k threshold necessary to sustain population growth and that points to a gradual slowdown of hiring momentum.

Unemployment rate slightly increased, going up to 4.6% from the previous readings. The change was caused by a small rise in the number of unemployed individuals and by the fact that labor force participation remained flat; thus, the weak demand is the reason for the increase in unemployment and not new workers entering the market.

Wage growth kept at a moderate level as average hourly earnings went up by 0.3% m/m thus yearly growth amounted to about 3.8% which is significantly lower than the peaks of the cycle when it was above 5%. Such a slow pace is consistent with inflation moving towards the Fed's 2% target which opens up the possibility of the FOMC either continuing or accelerating rate cuts in 2026 if economic activity were to soften.

The majority of the job gains were in the healthcare and government sectors while manufacturing, transportation, and temporary help services continued to lose jobs or their losses deepened which are typical late-cycle patterns. The combination of modest payrolls, rising unemployment, and cooling wages signal a labor market that is "cooling but not collapsing" and as such, it is likely that the Fed will continue with accommodative monetary policy. This would be supportive of a USD depreciation against risk assets such as equities and crypto in the medium term. ​‍​‌‍​‍‌​‍​‌‍​‍‌