Norwegian mainland economy grows sequentially in October

Norwegian mainland economy grew 0.1 percent sequentially in October and rose 0.3 percent three-month-on-three-month. On a year-on-year basis, the economic growth dropped 3 percent in September to 1.9 percent in October. The monthly rise in October followed unchanged GDP in September and falling GDP in August. Mainland GDP was possibly on the weak side of Norges Bank’s expectations.

The monthly national accounts data showed that mainland GDP rose 0.1 percent sequentially in October, as compared with consensus expectations of a rise of 0.2 percent. The three-month moving average showed growth in mainland Norway of 0.3 percent, as compared with September’s print of 0.7 percent.

The year-on-year growth eased to 1.9 percent from September’s 3 percent. The year-on-year growth averaged 3 percent for July to September. The carry-over to fourth quarter is 0.05 percentage point. The reach Norges Bank’s forecast of 0.5 percent quarter-on-quarter in the fourth quarter, the mainland GDP has to increase substantially in November.

The monthly growth in domestic demand for October was pulled down by falling private goods consumption and house investments, and falling public consumption and investments. Moreover, non-growth in traditional goods exports fell. From the supply side falling public production and non-growth in the service sectors weighed down overall growth.

Growth was underpinned by a considerable fall in imports and rising investments in the good producing sectors inclusive the petroleum sector. Also, the GDP in goods producing sectors added to overall growth. Surprisingly GDP for the manufacturing sector was up 0.6 percent sequentially in spite of the monthly production statistics showed production in October.

Total GDP rose 1.2 percent sequentially pulled up by a noticeable increase in exports of crude oil and gas. Three-month-on-three-month growth was still negative with -0.1 percent in October.