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Negative rates series: sticky deposit rates, pain for banks

Negative rates has come to extreme scrutiny both from academics and investors, and now they are slowly being considered as more risky than benefits they provide. Following the path of smaller economies like Sweden, Switzerland, big ones like Euro Zone and Japan have followed suit in negative territory.

Especially for Japan, it has yielded undesired consequences. Retails psyche has been hit hard along with investors:

  • While demand for small vaults to store money has gone up from retail side, bigger investors have started parking money outside Japan and into other countries' longer term debt securities.
  • Academics have started accusing the central banks for fuelling greater risks to the economy in the future as these negative rates are artificially supporting zombie firms, which otherwise would have become bust due to lack of efficiency.
  • 2016 hasn't been the year for equities so far but more so for the banks as they are going to suffer from these negative rates. While central banks deposit rates turn negative, they can't pass that onto consumers, due to sticky nature of retail deposit rates at the banks. It is not even clear for many, if it's even legal to charge customers to put money in the bank. Politicians are worried that there may be widespread backlash if they start charging regular people to park money at the banks. There could even be run for deposits, if rates go too negative.

All in all, it won't be exaggerations to say that negative rates are slowly but structurally changing how financial world operates. We expect central banks to be more cautious going ahead before dragging the rates further below.

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