Narrowing trade deficit in Feb leaves US GDP on course to a 2.5-3.0% annualised rise in Q1: Capital Economics

Quotes from Capital Economics:

- The narrowing in the international trade deficit in February, to $41.7bn from $45.6bn in January (consensus $41.5bn) leaves GDP on course to rise by between 2.5% and 3.0% annualised in the first quarter. 

- The decline was largely due to a fall in the value of oil imported triggered by a drop in both the price and the volume of oil imports. But the real trade deficit also narrowed, to $53.6bn from $54.0bn. 

- This reflected the 2.0% m/m fall in real exports and 1.6% m/m fall in real imports, both due to the disruption caused by the West Coast labour dispute. Real exports and imports will rebound in the coming months.