Janet Yellen is presenting the FED's biannual testimony before congress today. This is a two day event, though the first day is usually the major market movers.
Key points in the testimony -
- FED recognizes the current strength in the labor market through the rise in the NFP headline figure and fall in long term unemployed.
- Nevertheless it believes that further improvement is required in the wage growth and participation rate.
- FED recognizes the strength in GDP growth but expects such rate of growth (3.75% in second half of 2014) to be unsustainable at this stage but expect it to be strong enough.
- FED has shrugged off fear over falling inflation and falling inflation expectation. According to FED they remain subdued due to monetary policy easing abroad & lower oil price.
- FED will prefer conventional measures & tighten through interest rates not the balance sheet management.
- FED would change forward guidance before any rate hike & absence of the patience word would mean policy change at any meeting though not an assured condition.
Analogy & Reaction -
- Federal Reserve is going to hike rates and sounds like June this year.
- The pace of the rise will be gradual and will remain below the longer run average.
- Market remained unmoved after the comments. Euro is trading at 1.133, Yen at 119 & pound at 1.545.
- Stock market is also stable. S&P 500 is trading at 2114, up 0.23% for the day.


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