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Major driving forces for GBP/USD and EUR/USD in H2 2015

Wednesday, July 29, 2015 10:04 AM UTC

What may break down euro correlations:

Bearish factors would mean higher cable vol.

Current account and budget deficits, low inflation, and Brexit fears are darkening the GBP outlook.

EUR/USD should now decline by more than EUR/GBP and pull GBP/USD lower.

With cable risk reversal oriented towards low strikes, a bearish move would lift volatility.

Driving USD to lift cable vol more than EUR/USD vol:

With the euro in the driving seat in H1 majorly due to macros drifting in the region such as Greece debt turmoil and ECB's quantitative easing programme, the positive correlation between EUR/USD and EUR/GBP increased significantly but stressing out GBP/USD volatility.

But for now the USD should regain its driver seat in H2 owing to the Fed lift-off timing will take centre stage again. Euro's correlations should plummet so that cable vol should catch up with EUR/USD vol.

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Major driving forces for GBP/USD and EUR/USD in H2 2015

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