Low oil bad for earnings, good for consumers and automakers

Equity markets follow the earnings of the underlying companies. So it is no mystery why equity markets have essentially been flat for the year. First quarter earnings growth was only 1 percent and second quarter is leaning toward -1 percent growth. The energy sector certainly stands out as the leading market headwind with earnings down 55 percent in Q2 from a year ago. Investors are wondering if this is as bad as it gets. An oil supply gut, coupled with slow global growth, continues to exert downward pressure on prices so do not expect a return to $100/barrel oil.

On the flip side, the average global cost of oil production is generally $40/barrel and anything lower may throw some suppliers offline. In addition, according to the EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) the low oil prices are actually increasing demand in the U.S. which will help support prices. Accordingly, high margin SUV sales are surging, boosting auto maker profits as more Americans find tooling around town in a gas guzzling living room setting more attractive, says Voya Global.