July US employment report: Another month of solid payroll gains

Barclays notes:

For the July employment report, which is scheduled for release on August 7, we expect nonfarm payrolls to rise by 250k, private payrolls to rise by 245k, and for government payrolls to rise by 5k. Factors influencing our forecast include initial and continuing jobless claims, which have maintained their recent trends, and the decline in those employed part-time for economic reasons. 

Despite this pace of job growth, we look for the unemployment rate to remain unchanged at 5.3%. Underlying our view on the unemployment rate is our expectation that employment in the household survey will rebound off of last month's decline, which we see as anomalous and inconsistent with other labor market data. If so, this would likely coincide with a modest rebound in participation and forestall a decline in the unemployment rate in this survey period. 

Elsewhere, we expect average hourly earnings to rise by 0.3% on the month, partially reversing the flat reading observed in June. This would leave average hourly earnings up 2.3% y/y.  Finally, we expect average weekly hours to remain unchanged at 34.5.