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India's February CPI inflation remains benign as expected. Despite a minor m/m uptick, softness in inflation remains broad-based with price rises in most of the major components such as food (6.8% y/y), housing (5.0%) and fuel (4.7%) staying range bound.
Barclays notes its observations as follows:
- We believe inflationary pressures are likely to remain modest, and prices are going to be range-bound and below the 6% target of RBI by early 2016.
- Based on the new CPI series, we see downside risks to our average CPI projection of 5.8% in FY 15-16. With the weight of food being lower in the new series, and housing inflation rising at a much slower pace than previously anticipated, inflation volatility is likely to dampen, and the RBI appears well placed to achieve its 6% inflation target by January 2016.
- Beyond FY 16-17, the RBI has indicated that it wants to achieve CPI inflation of 4% with an error margin of +/-2%.
